Emerging Europe Monitor RSS FeedEmerging Europe Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor InternationalMacroeconomic Forecast Slovenia (Central Europe & Baltic States Monitor)- August 26, 2008 Q208 GDP data will be released early in September, but early evidence points to a slowdown from Q1's 5.4% y-o-y outturn. Manufacturing output was up only 1.8% y-o-y in June, as the sector continues to struggle against higher input costs. A 10% annual rise in inventories also points to a slowdown in demand for manufactured goods. Overall industrial production growth came in even lower, at 1.2% y-o-y. Meanwhile, while construction activity still seems to be robust, a survey for the sector...http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/68529/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Slovenia.html Fidesz In Front (Central Europe & Baltic States Monitor)- August 26, 2008 July polls by Median, Tarki, Gallup and Nepszabadsag show that the Hungarian Civic Union (Fidesz), the Christian democratic conservative opposition party, continues to wield a commanding lead over the ruling Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP). 66% of Median's respondents said they would vote for Fidesz, compared to a mere 26% backing the MSZP. The consistency of Fidesz's popularity (it has remained above 60% throughout 2008) reinforces our view that they will achieve an absolute majority and...http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/68528/Fidesz-In-Front.html Macroeconomic Forecast Bulgaria (South East Europe Monitor)- August 26, 2008 Bulgaria's current account deficit widened by 31.0% y-o-y during the first six months of 2008 to reach EUR3.8bn from EUR2.9bn for the same period a year earlier. The main factor behind the deterioration in the current account was a widening in the goods trade deficit which expanded to EUR4.3bn between January-June, significantly higher than the EUR3.3bn shortfall recorded in H107. We maintain our view that Bulgaria's current account deficit is set to expand further this year, with the full-year.http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/68536/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Bulgaria.html Macroeconomic Forecast Slovakia (Central Europe & Baltic States Monitor)- August 26, 2008 The Slovak economy expanded by 7.6% y-o-y in Q208 in real terms, down from 8.7% in the first quarter. On the heels of this latest data, we have revised upwards our full-year GDP growth forecast, with the increase now expected to come in at 7.6% in 2008. Growth is likely to remain robust in the second half of the year, fuelled by continuing high levels of household consumption, export and gross capital fixed formation growth, which are expected to come in at 8.0%, 12.3% and 5.3%, respectively....http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/68531/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Slovakia.html Macroeconomic Forecast RUSSIA (Russia and CIS Monitor)- August 26, 2008 Russian federal budget revenues have soared over the first seven months of the year, rising by 47.1% y-o-y to a record RUB5,701bn. By comparison, revenue growth over the same period in 2007 came to just 12.6% y-o-y. Government coffers were bolstered by the sudden uptick in economic activity - attributed to spiralling global energy prices - which not only helped to buoy fee collections for the exploitation of natural resources, but income tax revenues as well. We have revised up our Russian...http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/68533/Macroeconomic-Forecast-RUSSIA.html Two New Ministers (Central Europe & Baltic States Monitor)- August 26, 2008 President Ivan Gasparovic appointed to two new ministers to Prime Minister Robert Fico's cabinet on August 18. Jan Chrbet and Stanislav Becik will take over the posts of Environment Minister and Agricultural Minister, respectively. Chrbet will replace Slovak National Party (SNS) member Jaroslav Izak who was fired by PM Fico over allegations of an unethical distribution of subsidies to public employees.http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/68532/Two-New-Ministers.html POLITICAL RISK - Downward Revision (South East Europe Monitor)- August 26, 2008 We have revised our short-term political risk rating for Slovenia, due to considerable uncertainty over the composition of the new government following elections on September 21. Latest opinion polls show the main opposition Social Democrat (SD) party inching ahead of the incumbent SDS government. More importantly, no party is likely to win an outright majority, meaning coalition forming will play a crucial role in forming a new cabinet. The increased leverage this provides small and specialist.http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/68535/POLITICAL-RISK--Downward-Revision.html Macroeconomic Forecast Estonia (Central Europe & Baltic States Monitor)- August 26, 2008 Estonian inflation ticked down to 11.1% y-o-y in July, a decline from the 11.4% seen in the previous month. A decrease in global commodity prices, specifically food and energy helped to add to structural disinflationary conditions. Indeed, food price growth came in at 16.8% y-o-y in July, down from 18.3% in June, while housing and utilities inflation fell to 14.1% from 17.5% over the same period. We hold to our view that inflation will continue to come down steadily over the medium term with...http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/68530/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Estonia.html War With Georgia (Russia and CIS Monitor)- August 22, 2008 Russian military forces crossed into Georgian territory on August 8, quickly overrunning Georgian defence positions and occupying strategic locations in the country. According to Moscow, the invasion was to protect Russian citizens in the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia, after Tbilisi launched a major army offensive into the region on August 7. While we expect Russian troops to eventually evacuate their occupied positions within Georgia 'proper', they are likely to establish an...http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/68476/War-With-Georgia.html Macroeconomic Forecast Bosnia-Herzegovina (South East Europe Monitor)- August 19, 2008 We forecast Bosnian real GDP growth to average 6.4% over our five year forecast period. This is predicated on an ongoing development of the domestic economy and consumer demand, and an uptick in the levels of inward FDI. Indeed, the announcement on August 4 that Volkswagen will move an assembly line to Bosnia is positive in this regard, and will help to buoy growth rates going forward. A couple more reasonably large investment deals would put upward pressure on our growth and industrial...http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/68332/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Bosnia-Herzegovina.... |