Latin America Monitor RSS FeedLatin America Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor InternationalStrong Demand To Drive Growth (Southern Cone Monitor)- September 19, 2008 The rate of growth of the Uruguayan economy has surprised to the upside in H108, prompting BMI to raise its real GDP growth forecast to 9.6% for this year. While lower commodity prices will likely see a slight moderation in growth going forward, we are keeping a close eye on a robust consumer sector.http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/69075/Strong-Demand-To-Drive-Growth.html External Accounts To Remain In Good Shape (Southern Cone Monitor)- September 19, 2008 We believe that the Paraguayan balance of payments should remain in fairly good shape over the coming years, although the strength of the guarani should begin to weigh on the trade balance this year and next. The current account, which we see falling into a deficit of US$112mn (0.71% of GDP) this year, down from a surplus of US$126mn (1.03% of GDP) in 2007, will be supported by continued strength in the financial account.http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/69076/External-Accounts-To-Remain-In-Good-Shape.ht... Oil Drop To Uncover External Weakness (Andean Group Monitor)- September 17, 2008 With the oil price correction showing no signs of nearing an end, we assess the risks facing the Venezuelan external sector (given the country's heavy reliance on energy receipts), in particular, the potential effects of various oil price shocks. We also look at the impact that President Hugo Chvez' policies have had on the capital account and suggest that bolivar will come under intense downside pressure over the medium term.http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68978/Oil-Drop-To-Uncover-External-Weakness.html A Medium-Term Growth Story (Central America Monitor)- September 16, 2008 BMI View: By and large, Panama has remained impervious to global economic and financial concerns, with the economy firmly on course to post another year of healthy growth (at a projected 8.5%). Fuelled by the large-scale Canal expansion project, economic activity is bustling and the government's finances are in decent shape. There are some caveats to watch out for - 27-year high inflation at 9.6% y-o-y, for instance - but generally we believe that Panama will remain one of the most promising...http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68950/A-Medium-Term-Growth-Story.html On The Brink Of Civil War (Andean Group Monitor)- September 15, 2008 After violent protests against President Evo Morales resulted in the death of over 25 people in the eastern departments of Bolivia, the threat of civil war is rising. The disruption of gas supplies caused by the protests and the deterioration of US-Bolivia relations add further concern, underscoring our downbeat assessment of the country's political and economic medium-term outlook.http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68914/On-The-Brink-Of-Civil-War.html Macroeconomic Forecast Puerto Rico (Caribbean Monitor)- September 10, 2008 Unemployment saw a rose to 11.3% in July, its highest level since October 2007 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. While unemployment saw a 0.9% decrease from its July 2007 level, year-on-year percentage change on a 12 month moving average shows a clear uptick in since mid-2007, highlighting the impact the US economic slowdown is having on Puerto Rico's unemployment levels.http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68887/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Puerto-Rico.html FTA Unlikely In 2008 (Central America Monitor)- September 5, 2008 Pedro Miguel Gonzalez stepped down as leader of Panama's National Assembly in August, following the expiry of his term in office. Gonzalez is wanted in the US on charges of the murder of a US soldier in 1992, and his position of power has been a major sticking point for the free trade agreement (FTA) with the US. As such, we believe that his departure should be a positive development for the deal, but maintain that there is little chance of progress ahead of the US presidential elections in...http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68881/FTA-Unlikely-In-2008.html Macroeconomic Forecast Trinidad & Tobago (Caribbean Monitor)- September 5, 2008 Since hitting a multi-year peak in Q208, natural gas prices have fallen by over 40% to trade at US$7.50 per million British Thermal Unit (btu) by the end of August. Such a rapid correction in energy prices (global crude prices have also eased significantly to US$105bbl) is unlikely to have a significant impact on Trinidad & Tobago's fiscal performance this year, however.http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68886/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Trinidad-Tobago.html New Union Plans (Caribbean Monitor)- September 5, 2008 Trinidad & Tobago Prime Minister Patrick Manning will persevere with the proposed political and economic union between the twin island nation and three members of the Organisation of East Caribbean States (OECS), despite Jamaica's concerns. The country is looking to integrate with Grenada, St Vincent and the Grenadines and St Lucia in a bid to forge an economic union by 2011 and a political union by 2013. Jamaica has warned about the impact the move could have on the future of the Caribbean...http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68885/New-Union-Plans.html Macroeconomic Forecast Costa Rica (Central America Monitor)- September 5, 2008 Costa Rica's trade balance took a battering in the first seven months of 2008. According to central bank data, the deficit widened by 96.6% y-o-y between January and July to US$3.3bn, prompted by a 27.9% y-o-y surge in imports (well in excess of the 6.4% y-o-y rate of export growth witnessed during the same period). Slower US consumer demand and the surge in global raw material prices have been the main factors in play. We stick to our full-year trade deficit of US$5.2bn, as we believe that...http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68882/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Costa-Rica.html |