(Untitled)- June 27, 2002 So Much for the Silicon Revolution From SG Cowen today, on AMD: AMD shares are where they were in 1983, returning 0% over the past 19 years. Wow, a tech investment on which you haven't lost money (except to inflation). There's something to be said for that. We should all take our hats off to AMD. While the company and it's shareholders have not benefitted, can you imagine how much Intel chips would cost, and how many interations we'd be behind, if AMD hadn't been chasing them on price and...http://radio.weblogs.com/0103609/categories/techEconomics/2002/06/27.html#a57 (Untitled)- June 24, 2002 Just one stock More on the stock that single-handedly keeps the market up : Goldman's Rick Sherlund checked in (sic) management which indicated it is "comfortable" with Goldman's estimates, and that those numbers might even be conservative. This is apparently why we got the big spike in the middle of the day. Even though the big high didn't hold, it sure was nice to close in the green for once.http://radio.weblogs.com/0103609/categories/techEconomics/2002/06/24.html#a53 (Untitled)- June 24, 2002 What is "Conservative" From realmoney.com: Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) is helping to hold the market up a bit. Goldman says that estimates may be conservative. Has Microsoft ever not been conservative with its guidance The phrase "grasping at straws" comes to mind. Microsoft is almost the only stock on my radar that is up today. And its spent some time in the red, not moving much more than 12 a point either way. But in a crushing market, its the one thing that is holding the rest of the market(s).http://radio.weblogs.com/0103609/categories/techEconomics/2002/06/24.html#a52 (Untitled)- June 19, 2002 Welcome to the lawyers, those great wealth destroyers... In a fine article on realmoney.com -- which you need a subsciprtion to view --, Paul Kedrosky argues the the the tech ship has passed. His points are interesting -- one of which he notes that because the Internet had such a profound effect on the very visible chattering classes -- white color workers and those tied to the media -- its actual effect was blown way out of proportion by the strength of the voices of those it affected. He...http://radio.weblogs.com/0103609/categories/techEconomics/2002/06/19.html#a50 (Untitled)- June 17, 2002 So call off the dogs Wal-Mart is selling Lindows-based PCs. I guess the anti-trust suit should be over now, as there seems to be viable competition in the PC operaeting systems market. I wonder how good their customer support is For $200 more I can get the same machine from Dell. I wonder how much Lindows is getting paid per copy Interestingly, they feature the system running lots of Microsoft software -- IE, Word, Excel, Outlook.... It seems that to download Lindows, you have to pay $99....http://radio.weblogs.com/0103609/categories/techEconomics/2002/06/17.html#a47 (Untitled)- June 14, 2002 The Lemmings Sentiment Indicator One key problem here is the issue of honesty. A lot of analysts have apparently decided that being negative is honest because being positive in 1999 turned out so badly. But chasing a bandwagon down is no different than chasing one up. Any "research" that masquerades as independent but actually just parrots the market consensus of the day is no better than chatroom clamor. Another interesting insight from TeroKuittinen of realmoney.com.http://radio.weblogs.com/0103609/categories/techEconomics/2002/06/13.html#a44 (Untitled)- June 14, 2002 Uh-oh Microsoft' petition to have the state's case against it dismissed was, not surprisingly, denied yesterday. In the midst of the ruling, however, was an interesting clue about what may be to come fro the 3rd judge to look into this question: Microsoft has argued that the states' remedies would mostly benefit a few competitors. Kollar-Kotelly said that "claim is flatly contradicted" by an earlier district-court finding that "significant adverse effect on competition within the state is...http://radio.weblogs.com/0103609/categories/techEconomics/2002/06/13.html#a42 (Untitled)- June 13, 2002 Again with the Units Music to an MSFT-holder's ears: PC unit sales up, but revenues down One of the other nice things about the sale of low end machines is that they have a faster replacement cycle -- as when developments occur that require more clock-speed, these machines are going to look long in the tooth that much faster.http://radio.weblogs.com/0103609/categories/techEconomics/2002/06/13.html#a41 (Untitled)- June 11, 2002 Getting past a penny MSFT earnings the last four quarters: .01, .23, .41, .49 Current MSFT PE: 45.49 Expected earnings for the current quarter: .42 MSFT PE if it hits those earnings: 29 Kind of makes them look like a whole different kind of investment, doesn't it I wonder how this works across some of the more egregiously high PE stocks in the S&P and NASDAQ lists Would dropping the year ago quarter have that dramatic an impact across a high...http://radio.weblogs.com/0103609/categories/techEconomics/2002/06/11.html#a33 (Untitled)- June 10, 2002 Goldman Says Microsoft is OK, Part II Earlier in the monht, in themidst of downgrades of 20-some software stocks, MSFT-axe Rich Sherlund noted that he'd visited Redmond and said "Microsoft is OK." Now we get this: We believe MSFT's quarter has been tracking within the range of expectations although Intel's mid-quarter update yesterday has raised concerns about the strength of PC demand. It is important to discern weakness in PC units from weakness in mix, pricing, and margins for Intel and...http://radio.weblogs.com/0103609/categories/techEconomics/2002/06/10.html#a32 |