sentimenTrader.com Intraday UpdatesAnalysis Over Emotion...Sentiment Analysis for the Stock and Bond Markets(Untitled)- August 25, 2004 Just a quick note to mention that the intraday putcall ratio I monitor (which includes all options, all exchanges) is at one of its lowest levels all year. The only other times which match this level are 116, 32, 320 and 720, all of which came close to peaks in the Nasdaq. When combined with the other data in the comments from last night, it is looking increasingly likely that we are getting close to a short-term pullback. These short-term bursts off potential intermediate-term lows.http://radio.weblogs.com/0129901/2004/08/25.html#a112 (Untitled)- August 25, 2004 In the widely-watched Investor's Intelligence survey, bullish respondents fell 4% to 39.6%. This can now be considered historically low, and it is the fewest amount of bulls since the March 2003 lows. Bearish responses picked up a bit, but are still well below what was seen in March. So overall, the bull ratio (bulls (bulls + bears)) is now about where it was in mid-April 2003. Even though the S&P is 200 points higher now than it was then, we are seeing about the...http://radio.weblogs.com/0129901/2004/08/25.html#a111 (Untitled)- August 20, 2004 Something for short-term traders to keep in mind is the market's tendency to show declines the day after an option expiration. Today being expiration, it would apply to Monday's trading. The bias for the day after has been negative for at least the past 10 years, but it has become very prounounced lately. Since the beginning of 2003, there have been 19 expirations. The Monday following has been positive only 6 times (32% of the time), and the average return is a rather large...http://radio.weblogs.com/0129901/2004/08/20.html#a110 (Untitled)- August 18, 2004 The widely-watched Investor's Intelligence sentiment survey came out with its latest results showing 43.6% bulls (down from 48.4%) and 28.7% bears (up from 24.2%). This is the biggest drop in bullishness in a while, and the survey is now about where it was at the lows in May in terms of overall opinion. It is not showning what I would call an extreme in bearishness by any measure, but it's a big (and good) change from what we saw in June. The lowrisk.com survey also came out, and...http://radio.weblogs.com/0129901/2004/08/18.html#a109 |