Planet YelnickCommentary on politics, technology and stock markets guided by Elliott Wave principlesThe Fed Will Raise Rates- June 11, 2008 Prechter World gets on a roll during times like this - the wave pattern is easier to discern when impulsive. Last night's STU proferred more evidence of one of their core claims, that the Fed follows the market on rates, does not lead. Check out the chart - it speaks for itself. For all you Prechter bashers, the service provides counter-intuitive insights such as this which are worth their weight in gold - your gold if you can separate their wishful calls (see my prior Wolf! Wolf! series) and...http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/the-fed-will-ra.html Prechter Predicts Petroleum Panic Peak Price- June 10, 2008 Current EWT came early so Prechter could opine on oil & other events. He expects oil to peak at between $160-190bbl. Rationale is a commodities bubble is driven by fear, and the fifth wave tends to extend; whereas a stock bubble is driven by greed, and the third wave tends to extend. A typical fifth wave extension runs 1.618 x waves 1-3, measured from top of 3 or bottom of 4, hence the range. Beyond waves, does this make sense John Mauldin has worked out an analysis that even if half the...http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/prechter-predic.html The Market Chose Death! Or Did It- June 8, 2008 The turn window said: reverse or die! And the market spoke. Kudos to the STU for the coiled spring of nested 1-2 waves: it seems to have sprung! Neely put out several alerts Friday, including saying that he is more worried than he has been for 25 years, and this may the worst bear market (ie. the best shorting opportunity) in 75 years. (See comment to prior post, here.) And yet, rather than crowing, in Friday's STU, Hochberg showed caution around several divergences. But they expect them to...http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/the-market-chos.html Pundits at the Tipping Point- June 5, 2008 Next day or two should prove interesting. STU sees the vaunted nested waves 1-2 at three degrees, meaning the Big One should commence at any moment. Other than a small flutter up a bit (meaning the lowest degree wave ii is not quite over), their view has little wiggle room. Neely is in a similar posture, telling his subscribers to maintain a short position in the S&P as it has little more than a jitter to go before a sharp fall. If the Big One doesn't happen, the best alt count is bullish: the..http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/pundits-at-the.html Pundits Agree - Tipping Point Reached- June 3, 2008 The STU thinks wave 3 began last week, and has recommenced this morning. Neely sees the S&P as vulnerable to price collapse, and the time for it to hold up has about run out. Yves gave us his sell signal a month ago, and went on TV today to say it is time to take two aspirin in preparation for the market headache that is about to commence. The Euro has gone back up, although not yet back to its recent high, and the Dollar is still meandering rather than solidifying. Watch to see if the...http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/pundits-agree-.html |