Planet YelnickCommentary on politics, technology and stock markets guided by Elliott Wave principlesCredit Spreads Narrow, Big One Fading- May 29, 2008 Of course the Prechter World thinks the Big One is coming, especially after last week's sharp drop in equities. But looking deeper, it appears the crisis is abating. Obvious indicators: oil softening, Dollar strengthening, GDP revised upwards, no official recession yet. Unobvious: credit spreads are narrowing. In particular, the LIBOR vs Treasury rate spread is narrowing. We are not out of the woods, and the toxic waste in poorer quality debt is still a dark force lurking in the forest. Yet,...http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/05/credit-spreads.html More on Prechter Warms to the Surge- May 25, 2008 Several questions and comments to the prior post compells me to add a little more analysis of Prechter's latest EWT. Nothing substitutes for going to the source, so I again recommend you read it. Please review the prior post then my analysis continues below the fold.http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/05/more-on-prechte.html Prechter Warms to the Surge- May 25, 2008 Not by name of course, but his just-published EWT lays out the bigger picture, and sees the odds of a final 18 month +- surge in stocks as rising. (My prediction of The Surge is posted here, with some updates based on cycles and market sentiment here and here.) Prechter is a very good analyst, and in this EWT he updates the wave count and lays out three scenarios. I expect the STU to continue to sing the Big One Down song, especially after this past week, but Prechter lays out fairly good...http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/05/prechter-warms.html Drilling Through the Oil Line of No Return- May 25, 2008 A week ago we applauded Fibonacciman for his oil call at $127. Oil of course faded then broke through and ran past the STU's line at 131. The STU has some explaining to do, since they said if $131 were violated, then the Elliott wave count would break (would make wave 3 the shortest). On the day after that blog post, another part of EWI put out this video, which has turned out to be prescient . I will wait to see how EWI squares its too conflicting views. The video suggests we are now in wave...http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/05/drilling-throug.html Yves Raises a Red Flag- May 20, 2008 Yves now has a sell signal. Check this chart. Disclaimer: opinions and projections contained are of the guestblog author and may not represent the views of Yelnick, Blackmont Capital (BCI) or any other organization. The information contained herein is for information purposes only and this report is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities. Neither Yelnick, BCI nor the author accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this report or its content. The...http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/05/yves-raises-a-r.html Moving the Line of No Return- May 15, 2008 Special Thursday STU notes that their prior call of a wave 2 top on May 2 has been broken. The S&P has exceeded the May2 high. (Dow is still below.) Most likely (assuming their count is correct) the major markets will continue to rumble and stumble upwards until the 61.8% retrace level (Naz2600, SP1450). The Dow meanwhile is bumping up to its 200DMA as well as trendlines back to the lows in Aug82 and Mar03, which might prove to be resistance to a further advance. The STU adds an interesting...http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/05/moving-the-line.html Waiting For the Line of No Return- May 15, 2008 Neely pulled back from his big C wave down today. He still expects it, but sees us meandering higher first. His line remains SP1475. In the STU Hochberg is out for a few days, and his partner Kendall is filling in, but they both still see a wave 3 down as still imminent, albeit perhaps after a few more days of a complex wave 2. The STU line has been long breached to the upside, and they are tap dancing.http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/05/waiting-for-the.html Springtime for The Surge- May 15, 2008 Deutsche Bank ran an analysis of 100 tech stocks and now sees reason for the IPO window to re-open. More than half the companies reporting exceeded their earnings estimates. As the report concludes: Our sense, colored significantly by input from our tech sales force and conversations with tech investors, is that there is a market now for new issuance. A month or so ago if we asked a major tech investor what his appetite was for an IPO the probable answer was that he had more important issues;...http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/05/springtime-for.html Oil and the Line of No Return- May 14, 2008 Fibonacciman takes the prize for best call on oil. He primarily build timing models but he also looks at Fib and Lucas levels, and weeks ago he predicted Oil would top at $127bbl, which it just hit and faded. Now, this may not be the top, but if it is, a great call. I drink his milkshake!http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/05/oil-and-the-lin.html Yves on TV Friday- May 7, 2008 Watch Yves on Bloomberg TV this Friday 17:00 ET on Taking Stock ... also on Bloomberg.comhttp://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/05/yves-on-tv-frid.html |