Planet YelnickCommentary on politics, technology and stock markets guided by Elliott Wave principlesThe Surge Will Not Be Demied- June 29, 2008 Soem comments to my prior post have compelled me to lay out the prediction regarding The Surge. The title of the prior post comes from the first Rap song, "The Revolution Will Not Be Televised". The Surge will not come as expected, and will not be on CNBC. The Surge will, however, be recognized when it comes by the Elliott Wave world, and is one of Prechter's three future scenarios. The logic of timing of the Surge below the fold.http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/the-surge-wil-1.html The Surge Will Not Be Televised- June 27, 2008 This past quarter (2Q08) has been the worst in VC history, at least since the modern era of institutionalized VC from 1978 For the first time, NO venture-backed company went IPO, and for the first time since 2003 (at the tail end of the dot-com bust) no info-tech company went IPO. Today Initiate Systems became the 20th venture-backed company to withdraw their IPO due to lousy market conditions (no kidding!). The number of withdrawals (largely in Q2) is triple the number of realized IPOs (all in.http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/the-surge-will.html Entering the Bye Zone- June 27, 2008 The markets have spoken. Time to listen. Today they crashed through the Mar low, the 2000 high and the Jan intraday low without hesitation today. They are decisively below the 34 year trendline from the 1974 low and the 2002 low. The Dow is back to Sep06, when this final leg up until Jul07 began. Any bounce (and it should come, maybe off Dow11.2-11.3K) will be fast and furious, but short-lived .. buying the dips right now is like catching a falling knife. Housing is still falling off its cliff..http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/entering-the-by.html Enter the Yves Zone!- June 24, 2008 Yves is back. After calling the last two major market moves, he now sees his second great buying opportunity coming up. Call it want you want - The Yves Zone - he is now joining me in calling for The Surge. His Zone will be driven by specific sectors, not a general rise. Yves is particularly keen on CleanTech companies. Watch for Yves to be featured next month in the Institutional Investor Magazine on carbon trading. Check out his count in this chart, which accompanies his guestblog, below the..http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/enter-the-yves.html Free Week on the Cheap- June 24, 2008 EWI would like y'all to know that in the final two days of Free Week, you can get a special discount by subscribing: 58% off for the first three months. Click here if interested. If you need a teaser, listen to Bob Prechter on Bloomberg television for an interview in the 5 p.m. hour (Eastern Time) Wednesday, June 25. Visit Bloomberg Television to see if it's available in your area. Bloomberg TV is also available on the Internet on TVU networks, channel 10085. As a personal aside, the EWI...http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/free-week-on-th.html Neely River Flood!!- June 20, 2008 Neely has sent out three emergency bulletins to help his subscribers manage their short positions. A collapse is now likely, albeit after maybe one more "media induced" relief rally. Tonight's STU crows that the long-term trendline (34 years) has been decisively broken. As the Feds march two Bear Stearns' hedge fund managers off in cuffs, we should soon test the Bear Stearns' last-minute-save low of Mar17. That level hovers around the 2000 peak level, and the Jan22 low level. A former.http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/neely-river-flo.html Neely River Overflows!- June 19, 2008 Market has dipped twice so far today and bounced, including pushing the Dow below 12K and the S&P below 1333. Glen Neely has been watching this fairly closely; new line to watch: SP1320. A drop below indicates the Bear will accelerate down.http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/neely-river-ove.html OMG! Free Week!!- June 19, 2008 It is Free Week at EWI, and I encourage you to click on the flashing box to the right and check out the Man himself. The markets are poised on the edge, and the EWI prediction is for The Big One, and yet, so many times we have had Free Week at such a point only to see the markets rise! Neely put out another emergency bulletin recommending lightening up on shorts, even though markets were down today. Why Not fallen fast enough far enough; indeed, we may be forming a short-term low. Tonight's STU.http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/omg-free-week.html Yves Explains All- June 17, 2008 Yves is on "Taking Stock" on Bloomberg Television Wednesday from 17:00 to 18:00 Eastern standard time (can also be viewed on Bloomberg.com). Fascinating juncture: Neely has prepared his troops to pull out of their shorts on the S&P unless the Sept S&P breaks 1333, and then confirms by breaking 1290. He also gave an emergency recommendation of how to play this - I will save that for those who subscribe. The longer it takes, the higher the odds of a continuing complex correction. Dollar weakened..http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/yves-explains-a.html Neely River Not Overflowing Yet- June 13, 2008 One of the indicators Neely uses much more than Prechter is whether a change of direction goes faster than the previous trend. In this case, the drop off the late May top has been fairly steep, much steeper than the rise off Mar17, but it is starting to stall. Neely compares it in a fractal sense to the drop into Mar17. If it continues with that sharp of slope, it would confirm confirm the change of trend. Zoran was a fan of this (which I gather came from Gann), and the Elliott Fractal site...http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/neely-river-not.html |